Passenger Car Model Planning Research Report, 2024-2025
1. Compared with emerging OEMs, traditional OEMs seek growth with stable sales.
According to data from OEMs that have announced sales goals, traditional OEMs generally adopt a strategy of making progress while maintaining stability in terms of sales goals in 2024, focusing on the steady expansion of the market and the solid increase in market share. On the other hand, emerging OEMs have shown a more radical and expansionary attitude, actively seeking to rapidly expand their market share and enhance their brand influence. For example, AITO aims to sell 600,000 vehicles in 2024, with the actual sales increasing by approximately 538% compared to 2023. Neta has a sales goal of 300,000 vehicles in 2024, with the actual sales rising by about 136% from 2023.
The actual sales of Geely, Changan, Chery, BYD and FAW in the first half of 2024 are close to 50% of their goals. With the successive launch of new models by major OEMs in the second half of the year, as well as the year-end shopping spree and holiday promotions, these five major OEMs are expected to successfully achieve their full-year sales goals.
2. From 2024 to 2026, Chinese automakers will launch about 330 new models
According to the number of model planing disclosed by OEMs, Chinese OEMs will launch 380-390 new cars (covering independent/joint venture and emerging brands; models include new/modified models) from 2024 to 2030. Of these, about 330 new cars will be launched from 2024 to 2026.
Taking Chery as an example, the new models launched from 2024 to 2026 will be dominated by SUVs, which indirectly reflects the continued high demand for SUV models in the market. In addition, Chery also attaches great importance to the transformation and upgrading of automotive energy structure, incorporating new energy models such as electric vehicles, plug-in hybrid vehicles, and extended-range vehicles into the key components of its new car series.
SUV models continue to occupy an important share of automotive market due to their advantages such as spacious space, excellent driving vision, and strong performance. In view of this, both traditional automakers and emerging OEMs have deployed a variety of SUVs in their subsequent model plannings (SUVs account for 57.7% from 2024 to 2027), in order to fully meet the growing and diverse needs of consumers.
From the perspective of energy types, in the new car planning for 2024-2027, new energy vehicles still dominate, accounting for 91.8% (mainly pure electric vehicles, accounting for 63.9%; plug-in hybird followed, accounting for 17.3%). In addition, major OEMs have begun to layout extended-range vehicles in new car planning, such as GAC Aion, SAIC IM, Changan Avatr, Li Auto and other brands have considered/adopted “pure electric” and “extended-range” parallel strategies.
3. More OEMs adopt a parallel strategy of pure electric, plug-in hybrid, and extended-range multiple technology routes
Although pure electric models are regarded as the future development direction of automotive industry, their core issues such as cruising range and convenience of replenishment have not been fully resolved, which limits consumer acceptance to a certain extent. In contrast, hybrid models, as a transitional technical solution, have gradually gained wide market recognition for their advantages such as long battery life, mobility economy and tram comfort.
After reviewing the product strategic planning of major domestic OEMs, it is not difficult to find that more and more OEMs are actively launching plug-in hybrid and extended-range new models on the basis of their existing product lines. These new models will not only enrich consumers’ choices, but also further promote the diversified development of the new energy vehicle market.
Case 1: In August 2024, Avatr Technology officially released extended-range technology – Kunlun Range Extension, entering the range extension market, and will release a variety of pure electric and extended-range power models in 2024.
Case 2: Xiaomi Automobile will launch its fourth model in 2026 – an SUV model with extended range power. The car is also equipped with rear wheel steering and uses Bosch IPB 2.0 braking solution.
In addition, in the face of uncertainty of the pure electric market, some multinational OEMs have also flexibly adjusted their electrification transformation strategies and shifted their strategic focus to hybrid field. This shift is mainly based on the slowdown in growth rate of pure electric market, consumer energy replenishment and battery life anxiety, insufficient infrastructure, and high cost of pure electric vehicles.
