Tesla’s vision of allowing individual car owners to earn passive income through a shared robotaxi network is giving way to a more capital-intensive business model, according to an analysis by JPMorgan.
Analyst Rajat Gupta estimates Tesla’s robotaxi operation could generate about $320 billion in annual revenue by 2035. About $314 billion, or 98%, would come from vehicles owned and operated by Tesla, while customer-owned cars would contribute roughly $5 billion.
The projections represent a major shift from Tesla’s long-standing pitch to vehicle buyers: purchase a car equipped with Full Self-Driving technology, place it in a shared ride network and generate income while it is not being used personally. Instead, Tesla would operate a large, vertically integrated fleet similar to the model used by autonomous-driving companies such as Waymo.
The strategy could allow Tesla to retain most of the revenue from each ride, but it would require substantial investment in vehicles, manufacturing, maintenance, insurance and infrastructure. Chief Financial Officer Vaibhav Taneja said the company expects capital expenditures to exceed $25 billion in 2026, partly to support fleet expansion.
Chief Executive Elon Musk said Tesla expects to be “vertically integrated” in robotaxis as it is in other parts of its business. He also predicted that demand would exceed the company’s ability to provide service.
The forecast depends on several uncertain developments, including rapid production of Tesla’s Cybercab, lower operating costs per mile and widespread regulatory approval for fully unsupervised autonomous driving. Delays in manufacturing or approvals could significantly reduce the projected revenue.
Tesla’s current financial results highlight the challenge of funding such an expansion. The company reported fiscal second-quarter 2026 revenue of $28.24 billion, a 25.5% increase from the same period a year earlier. However, non-GAAP earnings per share came in at 33 cents, below the 54-cent analyst consensus.
Operating margin fell to 1.4%, and free cash flow was negative $1.09 billion. Tesla’s shares also carry a forward price-to-earnings multiple of about 152, reflecting high expectations for future growth.
Tesla’s robotaxi service currently operates in seven U.S. metropolitan areas, while active Full Self-Driving subscriptions have reached 1.48 million, up 56% from a year earlier. Production of the Cybercab has begun at the company’s Texas factory.
The projected robotaxi revenue remains a long-term scenario rather than a current source of reported earnings. For investors, Tesla’s ability to improve margins and cash flow while financing the planned fleet expansion may be as important as its progress toward autonomous driving.
